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Capital investment (CDEL) spending assumption: maintain spending in cash terms beyond Spending Review 2021 In-Work Conditionality for Universal Credit claimants - The government will bring forward the nationwide rollout of the In-Work Progression Offer, announced at Spending Review 2021, starting with a phased rollout from September 2023, to support individuals on Universal Credit (UC) and in-work to increase their earnings and move off benefits entirely. This will mean that over 600,000 claimants on UC whose household income is typically between the equivalent of 15 and 35 hours a week at the NLW will be required to meet with a dedicated work coach in a Jobcentre Plus to increase their hours or earnings. The government’s priorities are stability, growth and public services. Economic stability relies on fiscal sustainability – and the Autumn Statement sets out the government’s plan to ensure that national debt falls as a proportion of the economy over the medium term. This will reduce debt servicing costs and leave more money to invest in public services; support the Bank of England’s action to control inflation; and give businesses the stability and confidence they need to invest and grow in the UK. Science and innovation are some of the UK’s greatest strengths. With less than 1% of the world’s population, the UK hosts 3 of the world’s 10 best universities, [footnote 31] has produced up to 13% of the world’s most impactful research [footnote 32] and has the second highest number of Nobel Laureates of any nation. [footnote 33] The UK also ranks fourth in the Global Innovation Index. [footnote 34] These remarkable achievements in R&D and innovation generate significant economic and social benefits for the whole of the UK and beyond.

The NHS will publish full recovery plans for the urgent and emergency care and primary care systems including interim milestones in the new year. These plans will set out detailed ambitions for recovery to deliver:

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The OBR expects trade volumes to decline over the medium term and remain below the levels expected in their March forecast. Import volumes are expected to decline, reaching a forecast trough in Q4 2023, 8.3% below present levels, driven by the weaker path for domestic consumption. [footnote 68] The current account deficit is also expected to widen sharply from 2.0% of GDP in 2021 to 5.8% in 2022, driven largely by higher imported energy costs. However, this deficit narrows over the forecast period as energy prices fall and weaker imports reduce the trade deficit. As set out in Table 4.2, while borrowing is expected to fall by 2027-28, it remains higher in every year than the OBR’s March forecast. This is due in large part to higher debt interest spending and a weaker economy forecast. Table 4.2: Changes in borrowing since March 2022 Council Tax flexibility - The government is giving local authorities in England additional flexibility in setting council tax by increasing the referendum limit for increases in council tax to 3% per year from April 2023. In addition, local authorities with social care responsibilities will be able to increase the adult social care precept by up to 2% per year. This will give local authorities greater flexibility to set council tax levels based on the needs, resources and priorities of their area, including adult social care. The debt rule will ensure that future policy decisions maintain the sustainable path achieved at the Autumn Statement. Alongside this, limiting borrowing will ensure debt reduction is delivered sustainably through tax and spend policy. Public sector net borrowing at 3% of GDP is broadly the level of borrowing which keeps debt on a downward trajectory, so a rule to keep borrowing below this level creates a clear path to ensure debt falls over the medium term. Targeting the fifth year of the forecast provides additional space to allow the economy to recover from the recession. Efficiency and Savings Review - To help identify further savings in departmental budgets, the government is launching an Efficiency and Savings Review. The Review will target increased efficiency, reprioritise spending away from lower-value programmes, and review the effectiveness of public bodies. Savings will be reinvested in public services, and the government will report on progress in the spring.

New approach to consumer protection post April 2024 - The government will work with consumer groups and industry to consider the best approach to consumer protection from April 2024, including options such as social tariffs, as part of wider retail market reforms. The objectives of this new approach will be to deliver a fair deal for consumers, ensure the energy market is resilient and investable over the long-term, and support an efficient and flexible energy system. Driven by falling consumption, the OBR forecasts a recession starting in Q3 2022, with output falling 2.1% in total. [footnote 66] The economy then grows by 1.3%, 2.6%, 2.7% and 2.2% in 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027. The OBR assesses that the EPG and other cost of living support will boost private demand over the winter, making the recession 1.1 percentage points shallower overall. The State Pension age is legislated to increase over the next 25 years. There is currently a Review of the State Pension age being carried out which is considering whether the existing timetable remains appropriate. The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions will publish the government’s Review of the State Pension age in early 2023. The Review will need to carefully balance important factors, including fiscal sustainability, the economic context, the latest life expectancy data and fairness both to pensioners and taxpayers. Protecting vital public services This rate is applied to the APF loan, Treasury Bills and National Savings and Investment products. ↩

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Includes energy price guarantee cap, energy bill relief scheme, and cost-of-living support measures announced on May 27 Additional costs associated with extending student finance eligibility to individuals on Ukraine visa routes from 1 August 2022 Tariff suspensions - Following applications from business stakeholders, this measure will remove tariffs on over 100 goods for two years to help put downward pressure on costs for UK producers. The measure will remove tariffs as high as 18% on goods ranging from aluminium frames used by UK bicycle manufacturers to ingredients used by UK food producers.